Sept. 11–Big game hunters could have a season to brag about if hunting success this fall mirrors the current game populations, particularly for deer.
Elk are another matter. Hunters can expect similar hunting as last year — which wasn’t bad — and we might see a slight boost this year, but more on that later.
DEER
Before we dive into the details about this year, here’s some quick history.
There were 129,155 deer hunters last year, and they killed 48,800 deer, for an overall success rate of 38 percent for all general and controlled hunts.
That’s down slightly from 2012, when 49,644 deer were killed, and a slightly lower success rate because there were also more hunters in 2013.
But last year’s harvest was slightly above the 10-year average, which has been so consistent it’s almost boring.
Hunters killed an average of 47,650 annually between 2004 and 2013, with a high of 54,200 in 2007 to a low of 41,805 in 2011.
The decade from 1994 to 2003 averaged 50,700 deer annually, but ranged from 38,600 to 56,900.
Going back another 10 years, between 1984 and 1993, the deer harvest swung from a low of 42,600 to a high of 95,200.
There are many factors at play for the differences, including populations, regulations and numbers of hunters.
Another factor is Idaho’s white-tailed deer herd, which tends to be more stable and provided about 40 percent of the annual harvest over the last decade.
Whitetails accounted for a smaller proportion of the harvest in previous decades.
Fluctuations in deer harvest tend to be from Idaho’s mule deer populations, and here’s where this year’s harvest could see a nice spike.
Three consecutive mild winters and last winter’s record fawn survival means deer populations are growing.
“Pretty much statewide, this is going to be a good hunting year for deer,” said Jon Rachael, Idaho Fish and Game’s state wildlife manager.
He expects plenty of bucks in all age categories for hunters, but particularly those yearling two-points that make up the bulk of the harvest.
MORE FAWNS, MORE BUCKS
Fish and Game attaches radio collars to mule deer fawns in 12 different areas in Southwest, Central and East Idaho.
Of the radio-collared fawns, about 78 percent survived, which topped the previous high in 2004-05.
The key point is that fawns are the most vulnerable part of the population, and, according to Rachael, winter weather is the key factor affecting deer populations.
Excellent fawn survival last winter means there’s likely to be a noticeable increase in the mule deer population in the fall, which is what Fish and Game expects hunters to see.
Add to that a steady crop of whitetails and you have a recipe for a memorable deer season, and a good mix of young and older bucks.
In the McCall, Weiser and Council areas, Fish and Game biologists reported that mule deer herds have had back-to-back mild winters and above-average survival of all ages.
Fawn survival was at a record high in hunting units from Weiser north to McCall, Fish and Game statistics show.
As a result, hunters should see good numbers of young bucks in units such as 32, 32A and 23.
In Southwest Idaho, Unit 39 surrounding Boise will provide a solid opportunity to harvest a young buck, or a doe if you’re a youth hunter.
The mild winters should also produce a good population of young bucks in the Owyhees, most of which is restricted to two-pointers only.
Game units in the Sawtooths should also have more deer.
Over in Southeast Idaho, biologists forecast that deer hunting should be very good this fall after many does were seen with twin fawns.
“With high survival rates over the last few winters and increased fawn production, hunters can expect to see good numbers of yearlings, does and fawns when they are afield this fall, and the fortunate few will even get a look at and chance to harvest a nice trophy,” Fish and Game managers reported.
Most of the hunting units in the Southeast Region have general mule deer hunting opportunities for antlered deer. However, youth hunters can harvest an antlerless deer.
“Based on recent year’s harvest reports, we would expect a hunter success rate of 25 to 30 percent in our general hunts this fall,” game managers said.
Hunters who were lucky enough to draw a tag in one of the controlled hunts (73, 70 or 78) should also see good numbers of deer and have a relatively high chance of running into a quality buck.
In those units restricted to controlled hunts, 50 percent to 60 percent of the bucks harvested have been four points or larger.
The upper Snake River area is also tracking with other regions.
“Three mild winters in a row don’t happen in the Upper Snake Region, and opportunities like this don’t happen very often,” said Daryl Meints, regional wildlife manager. “Sportsmen should take advantage of this while it is available; it could all change this winter.”
The Salmon Region is expecting a similar bounty with good fall moisture followed by a mild winter. Hunter success rates for the region have remained high with hunters seeing success rates ranging from 20 percent to 50 percent, depending on the unit.
Whitetail hunters should continue to have good hunting in North Idaho and the Clearwater area, which have long seasons and generous opportunities for either-sex hunting, which means higher success rates.
Whitetails accounted for 47 percent of the harvest last year, or 23,041, compared with 25,726 mule deer.
The Panhandle Region experienced its third relatively mild winter. Snowpack was near normal, but there were no “thaw-freeze events” creating an ice crust that’s a barrier for deer attempting to feed during winter.
There was also an early spring followed by record-setting rain in June, which grew excellent forage and should have deer in good body condition coming into the hunting season.
That scenario coupled with North Idaho’s reputation for producing lots of mature bucks could mean lots of trophy-size whitetails seen in the woods this fall.
DIFFERENT MEASURES OF SUCCESS FOR ELK
Elk hunters have had to adapt to a “new normal” that looks a lot different from boom years of the 1990s, when the harvests topped 25,000 three times, in 1991, ’94 and ’96. Those were record harvests dating back to 1935.
Not coincidentally, the number of Idaho elk hunters also peaked in 1995 at 101,500 hunters.
Those peak seasons roughly coincided with the reintroduction of wolves in 1995-96, and the two species have been intertwined ever since.
Idaho’s golden years of elk hunting were from 1988 to 1996, when elk harvests never dipped below 20,000 animals.
Since then, they’ve topped 20,000 just twice — in 2005 and 2006.
Many hunters have blamed wolves for the crash in elk populations in some areas. Surely they were a factor, but the predators can’t take all the blame.
In 1996, the last year the elk harvest topped 25,000, Idaho had about 42 wolves, according to Fish and Game statistics.
By 1999, the elk harvest dropped to 17,500, a 30 percent decrease. And Idaho’s wolf population that year? About 156 wolves, according to Fish and Game statistics.
It’s a stretch to correlate a 30 percent reduction in elk harvest to 114 more wolves than three years earlier.
But since then, wolf populations exploded and elk harvests, along with hunter numbers, trended downward.
Elk hunting seems to have bottomed out in 2011, when hunters had the smallest elk harvest in 30 years, and there’s been a modest rebound.
But like all things involved with managing and hunting elk, it’s complicated, and the data often become more a point of argument than enlightenment.
For example, elk hunter success rates improved from 2009-12 while the statewide harvest declined.
Fewer hunters took fewer elk, but on a percentage basis, more hunters were successful.
By contrast, the statewide elk harvest bottomed out in 2011 at 15,155 and increased to 16,418 in 2012, then held steady in 2013 at 16,437.
But Fish and Game sold 5,500 more elk tags in 2013. So while the harvest held steady, the success rate dropped, but was still a respectable 21 percent overall.
Why did hunters buy 5,500 more elk tags? Fish and Game’s Rachael credits the bump to hunters seeing more elk.
This year’s harvest may continue that, and there may be a modest increase in the harvest, which, however slight, would still be three straight years of increased elk harvest.
By which do you gauge improved hunting? The total elk killed, or the percentage of hunters who were successful?
On paper, things are looking better in much of the state for elk hunters. Unlike deer, elk are less susceptible to winter die-off, but still benefit from mild winters.
Out of Idaho’s 29 elk zones, Fish and Game reports 20 are meeting or exceeding the department’s population objectives for cows and bulls. Eight are under objectives, and one zone splits with some areas under and some areas meeting objectives.
Fish and Game said game managers are seeing improved calf numbers in some zones that have recently been depressed, such as the Sawtooth Zone.
Hunters have reacted by buying up the quota of tags for that zone.
“That’s very encouraging,” Rachael said.
REMAINING CHALLENGES
However, the traditional elk-hunting breadbasket — those mountainous, backcountry units stretching from the Selway country down through the Salmon River country — continue to struggle.
The department is trying to help those herds, and it sent a professional hunter into the Frank Church-River of No Return Wilderness last winter to kill wolves to improve elk survival.
It was controversial, but “we’re not giving up on the backcountry,” Rachael said.
Elk hunters have been among the wolves’ most vocal critics, and if there’s a grudge match, hunters are gaining ground.
Thanks in part to Fish and Game’s generous hunting and trapping seasons, wolf populations have been significantly reduced in some elk zones.
Hunters killed 198 wolves in the 2013-14 season (the season runs from late August through March in most units), and trappers took another 104.
“We’ve been reducing the wolf population annually since our first wolf hunting season in 2009,” Rachael said.
Fewer wolves has meant more elk in some cases.
“There are areas we would be very comfortable saying that,” he said.
Though that may be good news for elk hunters, there are still hurdles facing elk.
Elk habitat has declined dramatically in some zones because of fires, noxious weeds and other factors, including those backcountry units once famed for their elk herds.
Killing all wolves probably wouldn’t bring Idaho’s elk herds back to the level they were in the mid-1990s.
Roger Phillips: 377-6215, Twitter: @rogeroutdoors